1. India-US Ties under Trump as US President
Context: Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency as its 47th President brings mixed implications for India-US relations. His first term (2017-2021) saw India and the United States enhance cooperation across multiple areas, including defence, counter-terrorism, and strategic energy partnerships, while also facing tensions in areas like trade and immigration. Trump’s second term, referred to as “Trump 2.0,” is anticipated to build on these foundations while presenting fresh challenges.
Trump’s First Term – Strengthening Indo-US Strategic Ties
Overview :
Under Trump’s leadership, the India-US relationship moved from being merely a strategic partnership to becoming a stronger alliance, largely united on mutual defence and strategic interests. This phase saw high-level diplomatic interactions, with Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the White House in 2017 and Trump’s reciprocal visit to India in 2020 underscoring this evolution.
Key Areas of Cooperation :
1. Defence and Security:
- Counter-terrorism: Trump’s administration openly supported India’s stance on terrorism, with specific backing for designating Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. The US also advocated Pakistan’s grey-listing by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
- Defence Trade and Technology: India’s defence imports from the US rose significantly, with imports reaching $18 billion, which strengthened India’s military capabilities and diversified its defence procurement sources.
2. Energy Partnership: The 2018 Strategic Energy Partnership between India and the US helped diversify India’s energy sources. The US became India’s sixth-largest hydrocarbon supplier, aiding in energy security and stability.
3. China as a Mutual Rival: Trump’s framing of China as a common strategic threat aligned with India’s own security concerns. His administration revived the Quad alliance and promoted the Indo-Pacific strategy, both aimed at countering China’s regional influence.
Challenges During Trump’s First Term:
Despite these advances, Trump’s presidency had its share of friction points with India:
• Energy Restrictions: Trump pressured India to stop oil imports from Iran, impacting India’s traditional energy sources.
• Trade Disputes: Trump’s push for lower tariffs on U.S. exports, such as Harley Davidson motorcycles, and his demands for a fairer trade balance created economic friction.
- Immigration Policies: The Trump administration’s restrictions on H1-B visas affected India’s IT industry, which relies heavily on skilled migration.
- Kashmir Mediation: Trump’s offer to mediate between India and Pakistan on Kashmir was met with backlash from India, which opposes third-party involvement on the issue.
Trump’s Return and Its Potential Impact on India-US Relations:
With Trump poised to start a second term, both opportunities and potential areas of friction arise for India-US ties.
Opportunities for Stronger India-US Relations:
1. Reviving Trade and Defence Deals:
- Trump has indicated a desire to resume talks on a Free Trade Agreement, potentially enhancing bilateral trade.
- Further U.S. military hardware sales could bolster India’s defence capabilities, building on the $18 billion in defence imports during Trump’s first term.
2. Energy Independence and Security: Trump’s previous support for energy independence included an MoU for the Driftwood LNG plant. Reviving such partnerships could strengthen India’s energy security and reduce dependency on unstable suppliers.
3. Reduced Pressure on Domestic Issues: Under Trump, diplomatic pressure over India’s domestic issues like press freedoms, NGO treatment, and human rights may ease, reducing tension that arose with the Biden administration on these fronts.
4. Regional Policy: Trump’s firm stance on reducing funding to Pakistan is likely to continue, aligning with India’s concerns regarding security in the region. Additionally, he may take a strong stance against Khalistani separatist groups.
Potential Areas of Friction:
1. Trade and Tariff Policies: Trump’s focus on reducing trade tariffs could revive disputes over India’s tariff policies, potentially creating friction in trade relations.
2. Diplomatic Sensitivities: As seen during his first term, Trump’s statements on sensitive topics like Kashmir and India-China conflicts could lead to diplomatic tensions. Maintaining clear communication will be essential to avoiding misunderstandings.
3. Sanctions on Energy Imports: Trump’s previous administration imposed pressure on India to cut oil imports from Iran and Venezuela. A similar approach during his second term could strain India’s energy policies and its relationships in the region.
Conclusion: Trump’s first term laid a solid foundation for Indo-US relations by enhancing cooperation in defence, counter-terrorism, and energy security. While Trump 2.0 presents opportunities to deepen this partnership, particularly through trade and defence ties, India will need to be vigilant in managing potential challenges. The evolving regional dynamics in Asia-Pacific and ongoing economic interests make it crucial for India to maintain a balanced approach in its ties with the United States under Trump’s renewed presidency.
2. What Trumponomics Means for India?
Context: Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies,widely referred to as “Trumponomics,” could have significant implications for India, especially in areas of trade, immigration, and the economy.
1. Trade and Economic Impact:
• Impact on the IT Sector: Trumponomics also emphasizes boosting domestic production, which may limit outsourcing. However, his proposal to cut corporate taxes from 21% to 15% could free up budgets for U.S. firms to invest in services from Indian IT companies. This tax cut could improve the demand for Indian IT services and benefit Indian tech stocks.
• Forex and Bond Market Volatility: Increased tariffs could lead to inflation in the U.S., forcing the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-cut agenda. Higher U.S. interest rates may draw capital away from emerging markets like India, adding pressure on the rupee and affecting India’s bond market.
2. H-1B Visa Reforms and Immigration Impact:
• Stricter H-1B Policies: Trump’s proposed policies include reducing the number of H-1B visas and possibly imposing shorter durations, especially for third-party placements. Indian professionals, who make up over 70% of H-1B holders, could face limited job opportunities and greater job insecurity in the U.S. This restriction could significantly affect the Indian IT sector and limit family reunifications.
• Green Card Proposal: Trump’s recent proposal to grant automatic green cards to foreign graduates from U.S. colleges is favorable for Indian students, as it could lead to more stable career pathways in the U.S. This shift may offset some of the adverse effects of tighter H-1B restrictions.
• Impact on the U.S. Tech Sector: Companies like Amazon and Google, which heavily rely on skilled immigrant labor, may face hiring challenges due to more restrictive immigration policies. This, in turn, may reduce the demand for Indian tech talent in the U.S.
3. Fiscal Policy and Global Economic Stability:
• Inflation and Fiscal Deficit Concerns: Trump’s economic plans could create inflationary pressures in the U.S., driven by tariffs and tax cuts. As U.S. deficits increase, foreign lenders may view U.S. Treasury debt less favorably, which could impact global investor confidence.
• Impact on India’s Monetary Policy: If U.S. inflation rises, the Federal Reserve may halt rate cuts. This change could prompt India’s Reserve Bank (RBI) to adopt a more conservative stance on rate cuts, potentially affecting India’s economic growth.
• Potential for a Weaker Dollar: While a weaker dollar could help reduce India’s import costs, especially for energy, it may also make U.S. markets less attractive to foreign investors, leading to fluctuations in foreign direct investment and forex reserves in emerging markets like India.
4. Elon Musk’s Potential Influence:
• Pressure on Electric Vehicle Policies: If Elon Musk joins Trump’s administration, India may face added pressure to lower import duties on Tesla vehicles and make policy concessions for electric vehicles. This could stimulate the EV market in India but may require balancing local production incentives with foreign investment interests.
• Satellite and Space Technology Policy: Musk’s potential role could influence India’s space and satellite policies, especially concerning SpaceX’s interests in satellite spectrum allocation and space launch agreements.
5. Geopolitical and Strategic Considerations:
• India’s Trade Diversification: Given the risks of trade restrictions, India may need to further diversify its trade partnerships to reduce dependency on the U.S. This could align with India’s “Act East” policy, aimed at strengthening trade and investment ties within Asia.
• China’s Stimulus and Impact on India: China’s anticipated stimulus package to counteract U.S. tariffs could lead to increased portfolio flows into its economy, potentially diverting investments from India. This shift may prompt India to enhance its investment environment to stay competitive in the region.
Conclusion: Trumponomics presents a mixed picture for India. On one hand, corporate tax cuts and green card reforms could offer opportunities for India’s IT sector and students. On the other, heightened tariffs, immigration restrictions, and fiscal uncertainties pose risks. India may need to adopt adaptive trade policies, leverage its expanding digital and tech economy, and pursue diversified trade relationships to mitigate potential challenges and capitalize on strategic opportunities in a changing global economy.
3. Anti-Terror Conference 2024
Context: The Anti-Terror Conference 2024 in New Delhi, inaugurated by the Union Home Minister, brings together intelligence agencies and counter-terrorism squads to address evolving threats and devise strategies to counter terrorism. The event, hosted by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), focuses on critical topics including organized crime’s role in terror funding, the impact of encrypted communication tools, and the intersection of social media with terrorism.
1. Organized Crime and Terror Funding:
• Overview of Organized Crime: In India, organized crime covers drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, extortion, and more. These activities are highly coordinated and persistently conducted to generate profits.
• Symbiosis with Terrorism: Organized crime and terrorism often support each other. Terrorist organizations fund their operations through illegal activities managed by criminal gangs, who, in turn, benefit from protection and logistical support.
• Case in Northeast India: In Manipur, Nagaland, and Assam, groups like the ULFA and NSCN have used extortion, smuggling, and illegal taxation to finance insurgent activities. Increasing use of drones for arms and drug smuggling along the India-Myanmar border has raised security concerns.
2. Emerging Terrorist Group Formation and Criminal Linkages:
• Preventing New Terrorist Groups: The Union Home Minister emphasized a “ruthless” approach to prevent the rise of new terror groups. This includes tackling the financing channels that sustain these organizations, particularly in regions impacted by organized crime and cross-border smuggling.
• Emerging Threats: The rise of Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) in southern states and transnational crime syndicates linked to terrorism are focal areas. Specific cases, such as the Rameshwaram cafe blast, underscore the significance of inter-state coordination in investigations.
3. Technological Challenges in Terrorism:
• Encrypted Apps and Social Media: Terrorist groups increasingly use encrypted applications, VPNs, and virtual numbers to evade detection. Discussions cover how these tools complicate tracking and surveillance efforts, emphasizing the need for policies to regulate social media and encrypted apps.
• Narcotics Trafficking: With national security implications, the NIA highlights narcotics trafficking as a substantial risk. This includes how drug profits fund terror operations and impact public safety.
4. Counter-Terrorism Coordination and Strategy:
• Unified Anti-Terror Structure: Emphasis is placed on the need for a cohesive anti-terror strategy, coordinating counter-terrorism squads with local law enforcement at district levels for faster response and intelligence sharing.
• Addressing Left-Wing Extremism: Strategies to combat terrorism in Left-Wing Extremist-affected areas are key, with a focus on disrupting financial ecosystems that support these groups.
5. National Databases for Counter-Terrorism: The NIA utilizes a national database containing records on terrorist cases, fingerprint data, and profiles of offenders related to narcotics and human trafficking. This database supports more effective investigations by providing quick access to relevant information across law enforcement agencies.
Conclusion: The Anti-Terror Conference 2024 aims to enhance India’s counter-terrorism capabilities through a comprehensive, coordinated approach, emphasizing the regulation of organized crime, advanced technology for surveillance, and a strengthened intelligence network to counter emerging threats.
4. Eco-sensitive Areas (ESA) in the Western Ghats
The recent sixth draft notification from the UnionGovernment designates around 56,825.7 squarekilometers of the Western Ghats as an Ecologically Sensitive Area (ESA), impacting six states—Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. The notification seeks to protect this unique biodiversity hotspot by restricting activities like mining, quarrying, and large-scale construction in ESA zones.
Key Points about the Western Ghats ESA Notification:
- Objective: The notification aims to protect the Western Ghats’ rich biodiversity by limiting potentially damaging activities.
- State Feedback: States have a 60-day window to raise concerns or suggest changes regarding the villages designated as ESA.
Background on Eco–Sensitive Zones (ESZ):
- Concept of ESZ: Established in 2002, ESZs were created around protected areas to act as buffers or “shock absorbers,” preserving the ecosystem around protected regions.
- Purpose of ESAs:Declared under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986, ESAs are vital for conserving unique biological resources, rare species, critical habitats, and essential natural resources.
Need to Declare Western Ghats as an ESA:
- Geological Sensitivity: The Western Ghats are India’s second most landslide-prone area after the Himalayas. The lack of ESA status has allowed deforestation and development to weaken soil stability, leading to environmental degradation.
- Biodiversity:Recognized as one of the world’s eight “hottest hotspots” for biodiversity, the Western Ghats are home to a significant proportion of India’s species, with many endemics like the Nilgiri tahr and lion-tailed macaque.
- Hydrological Importance: Rivers originating from the Western Ghats are a primary water source for around 245 million people in peninsular India.
- Conservation Significance: With areas designated as UNESCO World Heritage Sites, the Western Ghats contain multiple national parks and wildlife sanctuaries, which underscore
States’ Concerns:
- Development Restrictions:
Some state governments, including Maharashtra and Goa, have requested a reduction in ESA zones, viewing the ESA designation as a barrier to development
- Impact on Livelihoods: Karnataka argued that the ESA restrictions would negatively impact local livelihoods, with strong opposition from industries like mining and tourism.
Key Recommendations from Committees on the Western Ghats:
1. Gadgil Report (2011):
- Scope: Recommended ESA status for the entire Western Ghats.
- Categorization: Proposed a three-tier system with differing conservation levels based on ecological richness and land use.
• Western Ghats Ecological Authority: Suggested creating an authority to enforce conservation.
- Reception: Environmentalists supported it, but states and industries opposed it for being restrictive.
2. Kasturirangan Report (2013):
- Scope: Recommended ESA status for only 37% of the Western Ghats.
- Balanced Development: Aimed to balance ecological sensitivity with development flexibility, focusing primarily on core sensitive areas.
- Monitoring Framework: Emphasized improving environmental clearances and setting up a monitoring agency.
- Reception: States found it more practical than the Gadgil Report, but some environmentalists considered it too lenient.
Conclusion: The Western Ghats cannot be treated purely as a wilderness zone due to their inhabited nature and cultural significance. Sustainable development that respects both ecological and human needs is essential. Policymakers must carefully balance conservation with development to create a sustainable future for this critical landscape.
5. What is RNA Editing?
Context: The recent success of Wave Life Sciences in conducting the first clinical RNA editing in humans marks a significant milestone in treating genetic disorders. This pioneering work in RNA editing was performed on two patients with alpha–1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD), an inherited disorder that primarily affects the liver and lungs.
DNA editing which makes permanent changes to a persons genome RNA( )
after it has been synthesized but before it is translated into proteins Unlike. RNA editing ,allows scientists to correct errors in messenger’ RNA mRNA, editing offers temporary, reversible modifications This capability prevents. the production of faulty proteins that can cause diseases, providing a safer and more adaptable alternative toDNA-based gene editing.
The ADAR (Adenosine Deaminase Acting on RNA)enzyme plays a key role in RNA editing. ADAR alters specific mRNA sequences by changing adenosine into inosine which mimics guanosine in the genetic code. By using
to direct ADAR to the specific mRNA segment that needs correction,, scientists can precisely guide RNA (gRNA) target and rectify these errors, allowing cells to produce normal proteins.
Alpha–1 anti trypsin deficiency ( buildup of mis folded α-1 anti trypsin protein Currently. , complications require weekly intravenous therapy while those with liver damage may need liver transplants. ,
RNA editing offers a promising the rapeutic approach by potentially correcting the mRNA errors that produce dysfunctional α-1 anti trypsin, reducing the need for such invasive treatments.
- Safety and Flexibility: RNA editing is non permanent with effects that fade over time, making it a safer-choice than DNA editing, which creates permanent genomic changes. DNA editing tools like CRISPR-Cas9 can introduce irreversible errors andmaytriggerimmunereactions.
- Lower Risk of Immune ReactionsRNAeditingreliesonnaturally: occurring ADAR enzymes, reducing the risk of allergic reactions comparedtoDNAeditingtoolsderived from bacteria.
Challenges in RNA Editing :
Specificity: ADAR enzymes can cause unintended changes in non-targeted regions, leading to potential side effects. treatments. the delivery of larger molecules required for RNA editing.
| Future Prospects: | ||
| , | , | |
| therapyAs. researchandclinicaltrialsprogressRNAeditingispoised, | totransformthegeneediting landscape- |
Although still in its early stages RNA editing holds enormous potential to become a core. component of gene
6. Equity Infusion For Food Corporation of India
Context: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) recently approved a Rs. 10,700 crore Equity infusion into the Food Corporation for FY 2024-25. This funding aims to strengthen FCI’s working capital by converting its Ways and Means Advance (WMA), a short-term government loan to manage cash flow mismatches, into equity.
Overview of Food Corporation of India (FCI):
Established under the Food Corporations Act, 1964, FCI’s mission is to ensure food security and stabilize food grain prices in India. Its key objectives are:
- Price Support for Farmers: FCI conducts price support operations, safeguarding farmers’ interests.
- Public Distribution: FCI distributes food grains across India through the Public Distribution System
- Food Stock Management: It maintains buffer and operational stock to ensure a steady food supply in times of need.
Challenges Faced by FCI :
- Storage Issues: Limited facilities lead to food grain wastage.
- High Costs: High expenses in procurement, storage, and distribution strain finances.
- Inefficiencies: Delays, corruption, and leakage affect the supply chain.
- Limited Crop Diversity: FCI’s focus on rice and wheat impacts crop diversity.
- Financial Burden: Heavy subsidies create fiscal pressure on government resources. Recommendations to Enhance FCI’s Effectiveness: To address these issues, the Standing Committee on Food, Consumer Affairs, and Public Distribution has suggested the following measures:
1. Decentralized Procurement Scheme: Encourage states to adopt decentralized procurement to lower transportation costs and improve local distribution.
2. Infrastructure Development: Aid states in building infrastructure for better storage and procurement.
3. Storage Utilization: Prioritize FCI-owned storage facilities to minimize hiring costs.
4. Godown Construction: Expedite godown construction in remote and underserved areas, such as the Northeast, Jammu and Kashmir, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep.
5. Performance Evaluation: Regularly assess the Decentralized Procurement Scheme to address any operational issues.
Equity Infusion through WMA Conversion:
The recent Rs. 10,700 crore equity infusion through WMA conversion aims to address FCI’s working capital needs, reduce its dependency on external loans, and enhance its capacity to manage operations effectively. This financial restructuring reflects a strategic effort by the government to stabilize FCI’s finances and boost its operational efficiency.
Conclusion: The equity infusion and recommended reforms could significantly improve FCI’s performance, helping it address challenges in storage, distribution, and cost management.
7. PM-Vidyalaxmi Scheme
The PM–Vidyalaxmi Scheme has been launched by the Union Cabinet to support meritorious students in India pursuing higher education. This Central Sector Scheme provides accessible financial aid to students aiming to study at top institutions, enabling them to secure education loans easily and affordably.
- Collateral–Free Loans: Students admitted to Quality Higher Education Institutions (QHEIs) will be eligible for collateral–free, guarantor–free loans to cover full tuition and related expenses. This funding will be available through banks and financial institutions.
- Digital, Student–Friendly System: The scheme will operate through a simple, transparent,
digital, and interoperable platform for students to apply for loans easily. The unified portal, “PM-Vidyalaxmi,” will enable students to apply for both loans and interest subvention.
- Eligibility Based on NIRF Rankings:
- Applicable to all Higher Educational Institutions (HEIs) ranked in the top 100 in the National Institutional Ranking Framework (NIRF) in overall, category-specific, and domain-specific rankings.
- Also includes state government HEIs ranked within 101–200 in NIRF and all central The list of eligible institutions will be updated annually with the latest NIRF rankings.
- Loan Provisions:
- For loans up to ₹7.5 lakhs, students receive a credit guarantee of 75% on outstanding defaults, which encourages banks to lend under the scheme.
- Students with an annual family income of up to ₹8 lakhs who don’t qualify for other government scholarships or interest subvention schemes will receive a 3% interest
subvention on loans up to ₹10 lakhs during the moratorium period (usually the study period plus some months post-study).
- Interest Subvention for 1 Lakh Students Annually:
- The scheme will support 1 lakh students each year, focusing on those from government institutions enrolled in technical or professional courses.
- The interest subvention payments will be processed via E–vouchers and Central Bank for seamless transactions.
Financial Outlay: An allocation of ₹3,600 crore has been made for the scheme, covering the period from
2024–25 to 2030–31.
PM–Vidyalaxmi Portal:
The Department of Higher Education will maintain a centralized “PM-Vidyalaxmi” portal, offering a simplified application process for all participating banks, where students can apply for loans and interest subvention.
8. World Cities Report 2024
Context: and Climate Action” The UN-Habitat’s “World Cities Report 2024: Cities highlights the dual role of cities as both victims of climate change and major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, though they are disproportionately affected by climate-related impacts. The report emphasizes the urgent need for cities to adopt climate-resilient strategies and tackle the gap in funding for climate action. climate-related impacts. The report emphasizes the urgent need for cities to adopt climate-resilient strategies and tackle the gap in funding for climate action.
1. Exposure to Climate Change: Over 2 billion people living in cities are projected to face an additional temperature increase of at least 0.5°C by 2040, exacerbating the impacts of climate change on urban areas.
- Funding Gap: Cities require an estimated $4.5–5.4 trillion annually to develop and maintain climate-resilient systems. However, current funding stands at only $831 billion, underscoring a significant shortfall in climate investment.
- Shrinking Green Spaces: The proportion of urban green space has dropped globally, with the average share falling from 20% in 1990 to 14% in 2020. This decline is detrimental to the environmental and social quality of cities.
- Impact on Vulnerable Communities: Some climate interventions, while well-meaning, have had unintended negative consequences, such as “green gentrification“, where the creation of parks and green spaces drives up property values and displaces low-income households.
Recommendations:
- Revenue Generation and Climate Finance: Cities should raise revenue through debt, Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs), and innovative financial instruments to mobilize climate finance and bridge the
funding gap.
2. Integrating Climate Action into Urban Planning: Climate action must be integrated into urban planning processes, prioritizing locally–led climate adaptation efforts to build resilience and sustainability.
3. Strengthening Social Protection: Strengthening social protection programs and adopting nature–based solutions ( such as green infrastructure) can help mitigate the effects of climate shocks and improve overall urban resilience.
About UN–Habitat:
- Genesis: UN-Habitat was established following Habitat I in 1978, which laid the foundation for the United Nations Human Settlements Program.
- Headquarters: Nairobi, Kenya.
- Mandate: UN-Habitat is tasked with promoting socially and environmentally sustainable cities and towns, as mandated by the UN General Assembly.
- and the private sector to foster urban development that balances social inclusion and environmental sustainability. which provide insights and recommendations for addressing urban challenges globally.
Conclusion: The World Cities Report 2024 underscores the urgency for cities to integrate climate action into u
planning, adopt sustainable financial models, and prioritize social equity to ensure a resilient and sustainable urban
