1. History and Evolution of Monsoon Forecasting in India
Context: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently forecasted ‘above normal’ rainfall (105% of the Long-Period Average) for the 2025 southwest monsoon (June–September).
This prediction holds vital significance, as the southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall, playing a critical role in agriculture, the economy, and water resource management.
Did You Know? Ancient Indian Weather Wisdom:
- Meteorology in India has deep roots in ancient knowledge systems.
- Classical Indian texts such as the Upanishads, Brihatsamhita, Arthashastra, and Meghdoot contain detailed observations on rainfall patterns, clouds, and seasons.
- These works demonstrated an advanced understanding of nature’s cycles long before modern meteorology.
Scientific Beginnings and Colonial Developments:
- The modern study of meteorology in India began in the 17th century when Edmund Halley proposed a scientific explanation for the monsoon winds.
- During British rule, early observatories were established in Madras (1796), Calcutta (1829), and Bombay (1841).
- Captain Henry Piddington, a British officer, coined the term “cyclone” while studying tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal.
Timeline of Monsoon Forecasting in India:
1877 – Forecasting Begins:
- IMD started monsoon forecasting following the Great Famine of 1876–78, which highlighted the urgent need for rainfall prediction.
1886 – First Long-Range Forecast:
- Henry Francis Blanford, IMD’s first Meteorological Reporter, linked Himalayan snow cover to monsoon strength and made the first seasonal forecast.
1904–1920s – Sir Gilbert Walker’s Contributions:
- Sir Gilbert Walker introduced statistical models using 28 global parameters, including the Southern Oscillation (SO)—a precursor to what we now know as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation).
- He divided India into three meteorological subregions for better accuracy.
Post-Independence Developments:
Challenges with Early Models:
- Walker’s model continued until 1987, but its effectiveness declined due to changing climate patterns.
- In 1988, a new regression model (called the Gowariker Model) was introduced using 16 predictors, but it struggled with regional accuracy.
Modernization and Technological Shifts:
Key Improvements Over the Years:
2003 – Two New Models Introduced
- IMD added two statistical models using 8 and 10 parameters, along with a two-stage forecast strategy.
2007 – Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS):
- Introduced ensemble forecasting, which uses multiple model runs to provide a range of outcomes.
- The number of parameters was reduced to streamline predictions.
2012 – Monsoon Mission and MMCFS:
- The Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) was launched.
- It integrates ocean, atmospheric, and land interactions, greatly enhancing forecast accuracy and long-range prediction capability.
2021 – Multi-Model Ensemble (MME):
- IMD adopted a global ensemble model approach, combining outputs from multiple climate models, including MMCFS, to refine and increase the reliability of forecasts.
Impact and Accuracy Gains:
- From 1989 to 2006, monsoon forecast errors were significantly higher.
- Since 2007, the absolute forecast error has dropped by 21%, a testament to technological upgrades and scientific advancements.
Why It Matters:
- The southwest monsoon is the lifeline of Indian agriculture, especially for rain-fed farming systems.
- Accurate forecasting:
- Helps farmers plan sowing and harvesting cycles
- Aids in drought and flood preparedness
- Informs water reservoir management
- Supports policymakers and disaster response agencies
Extra Insight: What is the Long-Period Average (LPA)?
The LPA refers to the average rainfall received during the monsoon season over a 50-year period (currently calculated from 1971–2020).
It acts as a benchmark to define monsoon categories:
- Below Normal: < 96% of LPA
- Normal: 96–104% of LPA
- Above Normal: 105–110% of LPA
- Excess: >110% of LPA
2. The Bandung Conference: A Turning Point in Global Politics
Context: In 1955, the Indonesian city of Bandung hosted a landmark event that reshaped the geopolitical landscape—the Bandung Conference. Held 70 years ago, this historic gathering brought together 29 newly independent nations from Asia and Africa, united by their shared history of colonialism and a vision for a sovereign future.
The conference marked the first large-scale Afro-Asian summit, setting the stage for what would later become a powerful voice in international affairs—the Global South. In a Cold War era dominated by two superpowers, the conference boldly asserted that emerging nations would not be mere pawns in a bipolar world order.
The Purpose: Decolonization and Collective Voice
The primary objective of the Bandung Conference was to strengthen economic and cultural cooperation among developing nations while rejecting all forms of colonialism, imperialism, and neocolonialism. The participating countries recognized the need for a unified front to address global inequalities and forge an independent path of development.
The Ten Principles of Bandung (Dasasila Bandung):
The spirit of Bandung was enshrined in Ten Foundational Principles, which laid the moral and diplomatic groundwork for future cooperation:
- Respect for human rights and adherence to the UN Charter
- Sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations
- Equality among all races and nations, large or small
- Non-intervention in the internal affairs of states
- Right to self-defense, in line with the UN Charter
- No military alliances serving big power interests
- Avoidance of force or aggression in international relations
- Peaceful dispute resolution through dialogue and negotiation
- Mutual interests and cooperation among nations
- Commitment to justice and international obligations
These principles remain timeless ideals for international diplomacy and are echoed in today’s multilateral forums.
The Birth of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM):
The Bandung spirit gave rise to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), formally established in 1961 in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. The movement was led by five visionary leaders:
- Jawaharlal Nehru (India)
- Gamal Abdel Nasser (Egypt)
- Kwame Nkrumah (Ghana)
- Sukarno (Indonesia)
- Josip Broz Tito (Yugoslavia)
NAM emerged as a platform for countries to remain independent of both Western and Soviet blocs during the Cold War, advocating for sovereignty, peace, and development without external interference.
NAM is the second-largest international organization after the United Nations, currently comprising 120 member states, representing over 55% of the world’s population.
Current Relevance: Bandung’s Legacy in a Multipolar World
Today, as the world experiences shifting power dynamics and rising tensions among global powers, the Bandung message is more relevant than ever. Calls for a just, inclusive, and multipolar world order echo the original aspirations of the 1955 conference. Issues such as economic inequality, digital colonialism, and climate justice are modern challenges that resonate deeply with Bandung’s core ideals.
Conclusion: A Symbol of Unity and Resistance
The Bandung Conference remains a powerful symbol of dignity, unity, and independence for the Global South. It signaled the rise of a new global consciousness—one grounded in mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and collaborative progress.
As we mark the 70th anniversary of this transformative event, it is a moment to reinvigorate the Bandung Spirit and work collectively toward a fairer, more equitable global future.
3. Government Strengthens Cybercrime Fight with I4C-ED Collaboration
Context: In a significant move to tighten the grip on cyber-enabled financial crimes, the Government of India has empowered the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C) to share and receive information with the Enforcement Directorate (ED) under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002. This strategic inclusion under Section 66 of PMLA will significantly enhance investigative capabilities and track illicit money trails, especially in transnational cyber frauds.
What is I4C?
The Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C) is an initiative under the Ministry of Home Affairs, designed to provide a robust framework for law enforcement agencies to coordinate and tackle cybercrimes effectively. It works as a hub for data analytics, investigation support, and capacity building, facilitating a pan-India response to digital threats.
About the Enforcement Directorate (ED):
The Enforcement Directorate, established in 1956, is a multi-disciplinary law enforcement agency under the Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance. It enforces key financial laws, including:
- The Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999 – a civil law that governs foreign exchange dealings in India.
- The Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002 – a criminal law that empowers the ED to investigate and prosecute money laundering.
- The Fugitive Economic Offenders Act (FEOA), 2018 – targets economic offenders trying to evade Indian laws by remaining overseas.
By joining forces with I4C, the ED can now track digital footprints of criminals and intercept illicit fund flows across borders more effectively.
Understanding Cybercrime:
Cybercrime refers to unlawful activities carried out through computers, networks, or digital devices. It targets both individuals and institutions, aiming to steal, disrupt, or manipulate data for profit or malicious intent.
Common Types of Cybercrime:
- Hacking – Unauthorized access to systems or data
- Phishing – Deceptive attempts to obtain sensitive information
- Malware – Malicious software like viruses and ransomware
- Identity Theft – Misuse of personal or financial data
- Cyber Espionage – Unauthorized surveillance or information gathering
- Cyberbullying – Online harassment and intimidation
Impact of Cybercrime on Society:
- Threat to National Security – Critical infrastructure such as defense, banking, and energy sectors are prime targets.
- Massive Data Breaches – Can lead to exposure of personal information and trade secrets.
- Service Disruptions – Attacks on power grids or telecom networks cause public chaos.
- Reputational Damage – Organizations may lose public trust and investor confidence.
Government Measures to Combat Cyber Threats:
Key Initiatives Include:
- Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In): National agency for responding to cybersecurity incidents and issuing threat advisories.
- National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC): Safeguards sectors critical to national survival like energy, finance, and healthcare.
- Cyber Crime Prevention against Women and Children (CCPWC): Financial assistance to states for setting up cyber forensic labs and specialized units.
- National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal: A platform for citizens to report cybercrime (https://cybercrime.gov.in) and dial 1930 for real-time assistance.
- Cyber Swachhta Kendra: Offers free tools to detect and remove malware and botnets from infected devices.
New Trend Alert: Cybercriminals are increasingly using AI-driven deepfakes and cryptocurrency laundering to evade detection.
International Cybersecurity Frameworks:
India aligns with global best practices through international conventions:
- Budapest Convention on Cybercrime: The first international treaty addressing crimes like data interference and content misuse.
- Malabo Convention (Africa): Focuses on cybersecurity and data protection in African nations.
- United Nations Internet Governance Forum (IGF): A global platform for policy discussions on digital governance and cyber laws.
Conclusion: A Smarter, Safer Digital India
Bringing I4C under the ambit of PMLA is a landmark step toward building a safer digital ecosystem. This integration enables real-time intelligence sharing, boosts the ability to detect and prosecute complex cyber frauds, and strengthens financial and cyber governance.As India moves forward in its digital transformation, this collaboration between I4C and ED will be crucial in safeguarding citizens, institutions, and the economy from rising cyber threats.
4. New Vision for Indian Cities: River and Urban Planning in Harmony
Context: In a forward-thinking move, the National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) has approved an Annual Master Plan under the River Cities Alliance (RCA) to mainstream river-sensitive urban planning across India. This bold initiative marks a critical step in ensuring that urban growth aligns with the ecological and cultural vitality of rivers.
The plan includes a robust framework for capacity-building programs, technical guidance, knowledge-sharing platforms, and thematic research, with a vision of making rivers a central element of urban development.
Urban River Management Plans (URMPs): A Sustainable Blueprint
Launched in 2020 by the National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA) and NMCG, the Urban River Management Plans (URMPs) provide a first-of-its-kind approach to manage rivers through an integrated environmental, economic, and social lens.
Key Highlights:
- Five cities—Kanpur, Ayodhya, Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Moradabad, and Bareilly—have already developed URMPs.
- An additional 25 cities will develop their URMPs in the coming year, as part of a broader goal to prepare 60 such plans across India.
- Steering Committees have been established in key states like Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal to support and guide this process.
- The initiative is supported by the World Bank, emphasizing its global alignment and importance.
Fun Fact: Rivers in cities like London (Thames), Seoul (Cheonggyecheon), and Paris (Seine) have undergone successful rejuvenation, serving as global models for integrating waterways into urban life.
River Cities Alliance (RCA): A Platform for Urban-River Synergy
The River Cities Alliance, launched in 2021 by NMCG and NIUA, functions as a national-level collaborative platform for Indian cities to share best practices and technical support for river management.
Core Pillars:
- Networking among cities to promote peer learning
- Capacity Building through training and knowledge dissemination
- Technical Assistance for river-centric urban planning
Since its inception with 30 cities, the RCA has grown to over 145 members, including cities from both Ganga and non-Ganga river basins. In a notable milestone, Aarhus (Denmark) joined the alliance, adding an international perspective.
Insight: River-sensitive urban planning promotes not just ecological balance, but also flood resilience, air quality improvement, and urban beautification.
Global River Cities Alliance (GRCA): Taking India’s Model Worldwide
India’s success with RCA paved the way for the Global River Cities Alliance (GRCA), launched at COP28 in 2024. This platform brings together over 275 river cities from 11 countries, including Japan, Australia, the Netherlands, Egypt, Ghana, and Bhutan, creating a global dialogue for river conservation and urban water resilience.
Supported by institutions like the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the GRCA aims to promote integrated water resource management and international collaboration.
National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG): The Force Behind the Mission
The NMCG, established as a registered society under the Societies Registration Act, 1860, is the nodal agency for implementing the Namami Gange Programme—the government’s flagship mission for Ganga rejuvenation.
Key Functions of NMCG:
- Pollution abatement and ecological rejuvenation of River Ganga.
- Maintain minimum ecological flows while ensuring sustainable development.
- Managed through a two-tier structure: Governing Council and Executive Committee, both headed by the Director General.
- The Executive Committee can sanction projects up to ₹1000 crore.
Conclusion: Towards Resilient, River-Friendly CitiesThe approval of the Annual Master Plan under RCA reflects India’s commitment to sustainable urbanization by placing rivers at the heart of city planning. With an ambitious roadmap for URMPs, international collaborations, and a robust policy framework, India is setting a benchmark for river-centric urban development—a model that other nations are beginning to follow.
5. Tax Exemption Granted to NMCG: A Boost to Ganga Rejuvenation Efforts
Context: The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has officially notified the National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) as an authority under the Income Tax Act, 1961. This major decision grants income tax exemption to NMCG, strengthening its financial and operational capacity under the ambitious Namami Gange Programme.
Namami Gange Programme: India’s Flagship River Rejuvenation Mission
Launched in 2014, the Namami Gange Programme is an integrated conservation mission to clean and rejuvenate the Ganga River. With a massive budget outlay of ₹20,000 crore, it is one of India’s most comprehensive river revitalization efforts.
Key Objectives:
- Pollution abatement
- Conservation and rejuvenation of the National River Ganga
Administrative Setup:
- Implemented by NMCG and State counterparts called State Program Management Groups (SPMGs)
- Overseen by the National Ganga Council (NGC), chaired by the Prime Minister
- Three-tier monitoring mechanism:
- National Level: High-level task force chaired by Cabinet Secretary
- State Level: Committee chaired by Chief Secretary
- District Level: Chaired by District Magistrate
Implementation Phases:
- Entry-Level Activities – Quick, visible impact
- Medium-Term Activities – Within 5 years
- Long-Term Activities – Within 10 years
Recent Developments: Tax Relief for NMCG
Legal Foundation of Exemption:
- Section 10, Clause 46A of the Income Tax Act, 1961
- Applicable to authorities formed under a Central/State Act for public benefit
- NMCG qualifies under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986
- Effective from Assessment Year 2024–25
Significance of the Tax Exemption:
- Enhances financial autonomy
- Improves operational efficiency
- Crucial for the execution of Namami Gange projects
- Reduces fiscal strain from past tax liabilities
Background & Legal Transition of NMCG:
- 2011: Established as a society under the Societies Registration Act, 1860
- 2016: Upgraded to an authority under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986
- Despite the upgrade, its PAN status remained as an Association of Persons (AOP), causing tax-related confusion and scrutiny
Income Tax Disputes and Resolution:
- Faced tax demands totaling 243.74 crore
- CBDT intervention: Permitted delayed revised returns for three assessment years
- Retrospective exemption allowed
- Action facilitated by the Ministry of Jal Shakti in coordination with the Ministry of Finance
Additional Insights & Facts:
- NMCG is critical not just for cleaning the Ganga but also for building climate-resilient cities and reviving aquatic biodiversity
- Tax-exempt status ensures smoother foreign and multilateral funding, especially from partners like the World Bank, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and others
- The Ganga River Basin covers 26% of India’s landmass and supports over 40% of the population—making its rejuvenation nationally vital
6. Draft GEI Target Rules 2025: Paving the Way for a Low-Carbon Industrial Future
Context: The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) has introduced the Draft Greenhouse Gases Emissions Intensity (GEI) Target Rules, 2025.
These rules set sector-specific emission reduction targets for “obligated entities” and establish a robust compliance framework under the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), 2023—a significant step toward achieving India’s Paris Agreement climate commitments.
What are Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)?
GHGs are atmospheric gases that trap heat, contributing to global warming through the greenhouse effect.
Major GHGs:
- Carbon dioxide (CO₂)
- Methane (CH₄)
- Nitrous oxide (N₂O)
- Ozone (O₃)
- Water vapour
- Synthetic gases like CFCs and HCFCs
Understanding GEI: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity
GHG Emissions Intensity (GEI) measures emissions per unit of output, e.g., tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) per tonne of cement or aluminium produced.
As defined by the Draft Rules:
“Greenhouse gases emission intensity in tCO₂e / equivalent output or product.”
This provides a standardized benchmark for industries to track, reduce, and report emissions.
Key Highlights of Draft GEI Target Rules, 2025:
Baseline and Targets:
- Baseline Year: 2023–24
- Target Years: 2025–26 and 2026–27
- Tied to CCTS 2023 and India’s long-term emission strategy
Industries Covered:
- Aluminium (13 plants)
- Cement (186 plants)
- Pulp & Paper (53 plants)
- Chlor-Alkali (30 plants)
Total Units Covered: 282
Major Corporations Assigned Targets:
- Vedanta, Hindalco, Ultratech, JK Cement, Grasim, Shree Cement, Dalmia Cement, NALCO, and others.
Compliance & Penalties:
- Defined compliance mechanisms
- Penalties for failure to meet reduction targets
- Performance-linked incentives via carbon credits
From PAT to CCTS: A Greener Evolution
Foundation: PAT Scheme (2012)
- Perform, Achieve, Trade (PAT) encouraged energy efficiency.
- Earned Energy Saving Certificates (ESCerts) for overachievers.
Evolution to Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), 2023:
- Expands focus to GHG reduction across sectors.
- Establishes GEI targets and promotes carbon market participation.
How CCTS Works: India’s Carbon Market Explained
Framework:
- Carbon Credit Certificates generated when targets are exceeded.
- Traded on the Indian Carbon Market.
- Overseen by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and Ministry of Power.
Industries Must:
- Submit Action Plans to achieve GEI targets.
- Buy credits or face penalties (enforced by CPCB) if underperforming.
Incentives & Market Dynamics:
- Surplus achievers: Sell credits for profit
- Lagging sectors: Buy credits and invest in clean technologies
Global Comparisons & Context:
- European Union ETS (2005): First large-scale carbon market
- China’s ETS (2021): Now world’s largest by emissions covered
- India’s CCTS aligns with global best practices under Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol
Alignment with India’s Climate Goals:
Key Target under the Paris Agreement:
Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
- GEI targets drive climate-smart industrial growth
- Encourages adoption of advanced, low-carbon technologies
- Ensures India’s development pathway remains sustainable
